Didn’t Attend the Heat Pump Symposium? Here’s What You Missed and What We Think
If you didn’t make it to Toronto’s 2025 Heat Pump Symposium this past Tuesday, don’t worry, we’ve got you covered. A few of us from Redmond Distributing were on the ground, attending seminars, walking the floor, and talking with industry peers. While the show didn’t offer any major surprises, it did reinforce some important truths about the current state and future of heat pumps in Canada.
Heat Pumps Are the Future… But We’re Stuck in the Present
One message came through loud and clear: heat pumps remain a critical part of Canada’s decarbonization plan. That much hasn’t changed. But here’s the thing, not much else has either. The content of the seminars echoed what’s been said for years now: heat pumps will help us reach net-zero goals by 2050. That said, the gap between industry enthusiasm and consumer adoption remains wide.
Why? Because the current policy doesn’t require or strongly encourage adoption. Instead, the industry is relying on incentives to drive change. These programs help offset upfront costs, but they don’t necessarily inspire long-term shifts in thinking. Most consumers still default to what they know: conventional gas furnaces and air conditioners.
Economics and Policy Are the Gatekeepers
Let’s be real, heat pumps can’t beat gas furnaces and air conditioners on price right now. Until that changes — and it likely will, just not today — homeowners are going to stick with what’s familiar. Without firm policy that mandates or at least encourages adoption, the economics don’t make sense for the average homeowner replacing their HVAC system.
This is critical because if someone replaces their system today, they will likely do it again around 2040. That means we have one more equipment lifecycle between now and 2050. If we don’t have a clear policy in place now, we risk missing this important window for adoption.
Another growing concern is how many heat pump brands in the Canadian market are manufactured by just two major Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs). While that creates plenty of options for contractors, it also means that many of these brands offer little to no real differentiation beyond their labels. This lack of variety in core technology, paired with extremely low price points, makes it increasingly difficult for established brands to compete and for dealers to confidently communicate the value of one product over another.
Redundancy Over Innovation
Technology-wise, nothing at the show stood out as groundbreaking. Heat pump systems are well established, but there wasn’t anything that felt particularly new or exciting. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Reliable, proven tech is valuable, but it doesn’t exactly make for a riveting trade show. The real benefit of attending was in confirming our understanding of where things stand. For those who have already adopted heat pumps into their business strategy, much of the content may have felt repetitive. For newcomers, it was a good introduction to the industry.
The sense on the floor reflected that divide. More seasoned contractors, especially those who relied on past rebate structures, are showing signs of reverting to traditional AC and furnace installations. Younger dealers, on the other hand, seem more inclined to treat heat pumps as the future. Without the financial backing of rebates, the market feels split. But slowly and steadily, more dealers are leaning into the shift, acknowledging that heat pumps are not a passing trend. They are the direction we are headed.
Our Take? Time for a Policy Pivot and a Rethink of the Symposium
At Redmond, we believe real, lasting adoption of heat pumps won’t come from incentives alone. It needs to be driven by policy. We’ve seen it before, like the 2007 phase-out of mid-efficiency furnaces. A similar approach could work again. Start by banning conventional A/C units in favour of heat pumps, then build out stronger electric infrastructure to support a wider transition.
As for the Symposium itself, there is potential. But to make it worth attending again, the format needs to evolve. Let’s bring in the people writing the policies, not just those reacting to them. Let’s walk away with action items, not just confirmation that we’re all on the same page.
Product Direction and the Power of Differentiation
Looking ahead, we expect more major manufacturers to launch their own in-house heat pump lines, moving away from rebranded products. This shift should bring much-needed differentiation back to the market. In the meantime, dealers who understand what sets each option apart will be better positioned. Products like the Amana S-Series, manufactured by Daikin, offer a competitive advantage in a space crowded with similar units. It gives contractors the opportunity to position themselves around quality and innovation, and to market a product that isn’t just another version of the same thing. Standing behind a differentiated solution helps businesses set themselves apart, something that will matter more and more as the market matures.
In a market shaped by policy shifts, evolving dealer mindsets, and an overwhelming number of lookalike products, the Symposium reinforced this: success won’t come from doing more of the same. It will come from staying informed, choosing products that truly stand out, and being ready for where the industry is going next.
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